Investor Memo · Shared for Discussion

Ziff Davis (ZD): They Sold One Piece at 11x. The Market Prices the Rest at 3x.

A primer on one of the stranger setups on the board: a profitable digital-media holding company that just sold a single segment for more than its entire market cap was worth, now sitting on ~$21/share of net cash, with a short base that peaked at 17.6% of the float and an August 6 earnings print three weeks out.

To:Friends and fellow investors From:Neil Patel Date:July 25, 2026 Re:Ziff Davis (Nasdaq: ZD), a sum-of-the-parts and capital-return setup with an AI kicker
Data as of 2026-07-24 close (prices, FMP) · Balance sheet: 3/31/26 pro forma per SEC 8-K/A filed 6/22/26 · Segments: FY2025 10-K + Q1'26 10-Q · Short interest: Nasdaq bi-monthly · Transcripts: FMP · Not investment advice.
Price
$51.60
7/24 close · cap $1.90B
52-wk range
$22–55
+~130% off the low
Net cash
~$765M
~$21/share, pro forma
Stub EV / adj EBITDA
~3.0x
EV ~$1.16B / ~$380M
Short interest
~13%
of float · peaked 17.6% mid-June
Next catalyst
Aug 6
Q2'26 print, call Aug 7

Key Insights

  1. The market is pricing the remaining company at roughly 3x EBITDA right after a real-world transaction went off at ~11x. In March 2026 ZD agreed to sell its Connectivity segment (Ookla/Speedtest, Downdetector, Ekahau, RootMetrics) to Accenture for $1.2B in cash, which was more than ZD's entire ~$1.05B market cap the day before the announcement. The deal closed June 17. One segment, ~16% of revenue, fetched more than the market was paying for the whole company.
  2. Post-sale, the balance sheet flipped from ~$285M net debt to ~$765M net cash, about $21 per share. At $51.60 you are paying ~$31/share for the remaining businesses, which did ~$380M of adjusted EBITDA and ~$200M of free cash flow in 2025. That is an enterprise value of ~$1.16B, a ~17% FCF yield on EV.
  3. A segment-by-segment SOTP backs into $95–120/share against a $52 stock. The sharpest version of the argument: Health & Wellness alone (Everyday Health, BabyCenter, What to Expect, MedPage Today; grew 11% in 2025) at a conservative ~10x EBITDA is worth ~$1.4B, which is more than the market's entire implied value for all four remaining segments combined.
  4. The "melting ice cube" label fits one corner, not the cube. The entire Q1'26 revenue decline came from one segment: Tech & Shopping (PCMag, Mashable, RetailMeNot), down ~13% as Google's AI Overviews eat affiliate and buying-guide traffic. The other ~73% of the company was flat to growing, with Gaming (IGN, Humble Bundle) up 7%.
  5. Management is a proven capital-return machine and just got handed $1.2B. Diluted share count went from ~44.5M (FY24) to ~36.8M today, a ~9.7M-share authorization (~26% of the count) is open, and management has said explicitly that asset monetization is now an ongoing tool and that the market assigns "little additional value" to the remaining assets. The $1.2B has been sitting idle since June 17: what they do with it is the story.
  6. AI is both the bear case and a free option. ZD is among the largest US publishers with zero disclosed AI licensing deals, while comps have set the price: News Corp ~$50M/yr from OpenAI, Dotdash Meredith at least $16M/yr, Reddit ~$130M/yr across Google and OpenAI. ZD's copyright suit against OpenAI survived its first test (direct and contributory infringement claims advanced in Dec 2025). A ZD licensing bundle plausibly worth $20–40M/yr at ~90% margins is not in the stub price.
  7. The short side built into the deal close, then blinked. Short interest hit a series high of 17.6% of float / 11.1 days to cover at the 6/15 settlement (shorts added ~44% from mid-April to mid-June), then covered hard: down 23% to 4.4M shares (~13% of float, 7.8 days to cover) at the 7/15 settlement as the stock ran to $54.95. Part of the July rally was that covering. What remains is still elevated (up ~38% year over year) into a dated catalyst.
  8. The honest catch: the stock has moved a lot faster than the business. Up ~130% off the $22.45 52-week low, trading above the consensus sell-side target, while Q1 revenue was still down ~2% and guidance is withheld. August 6 is where the re-rating either gets fundamental confirmation (Tech & Shopping decelerating its decline, cash getting deployed) or doesn't.

01What Ziff Davis Actually Is

A holding company wearing a magazine brand's name.

Ziff Davis is not really a magazine publisher, though the name (and PCMag) descends from one. It is the former j2 Global: a serial acquirer that spent two decades buying niche digital businesses for cash flow, spun off its fax/cloud unit (Consensus) in 2021, took the Ziff Davis name, and kept CEO Vivek Shah at the helm. The DNA is capital allocation: buy assets cheap, run them for cash, and increasingly, sell them when someone pays more than the public market will.

After the Connectivity sale, four reporting segments remain (FY2025 revenue, per the 10-K and the June 8-K/A pro formas):

H&W 33%T&S 29%Cyber/Martech 23%Gaming 15%
Health & Wellness: Everyday Health, BabyCenter, What to Expect, MedPage Today Technology & Shopping: PCMag, Mashable, ZDNET, RetailMeNot, Lifehacker Cybersecurity & Martech: VIPRE, Campaigner, Kickbox Gaming & Entertainment: IGN, Humble Bundle

Shares of FY2025 remaining-company revenue of ~$1.22B. Also acquired in Q2'26: Popular Science, Dwell, Domino, Business of Home.

02How We Got Here (2021–2026)

2021–22: Post-spin, ZD is a quiet digital compounder. 2023: ad softness exposes cyclicality and the "melting digital media bundle" narrative takes hold. 2024: M&A restarts ("the time is now," Q2'24 call): Gamer Network, CNET. 2025: the underappreciated move: ZD re-cuts reporting into five segments, which is what makes a sum-of-the-parts argument possible at all. Q2'25 is the high-water print (~10% revenue growth, four of five segments growing), then Q4'25 Tech & Shopping falls 18% and cracks the story. 2026: the unlock goes explicit. March 3: Connectivity sold to Accenture for $1.2B, a price above the prior day's entire market cap. June 17: deal closes. The stock runs from a $22.45 52-week low to the mid-$50s, touching $54.95 on July 20.

The one-paragraph thesis

Management sold a segment at ~11x EBITDA (management's own framing: ~14.5x 2025 adjusted EBITDA less capex, more than 5x revenue, an estimated 5x return on invested capital) into a market that was valuing the same assets, plus four other segments, at ~$1.05B all-in. That single transaction converted ZD from a "melting media conglomerate" into a cash-rich stub trading at ~3x EBITDA, run by people who have now demonstrated they will sell pieces when the private bid beats the public one.

03Backing Into the Valuation, Part 1: The Stub Math

Rebuilt from the SEC pro formas (8-K/A filed 6/22/26), not vendor data. Vendor "EBITDA" fields understate ZD badly because they miss intangible-amortization add-backs and a non-cash goodwill impairment.

StepAmount
Market cap (36.8M sh × $51.60, 7/24)~$1.90B
Cash & equivalents (pro forma 3/31/26)$1,676.7M
+ Escrow receivable + long-term investments$137.1M
− Total debt (incl. $148.8M current convertible)($867.1M)
− Estimated tax on the sale gain($181.7M)
= Net cash~$765M (~$21/share)
= Enterprise value~$1.16B
Remaining-co adjusted EBITDA (FY25, rebuilt)~$380M (~31% margin)
EV / adjusted EBITDA~3.0x
Remaining-co free cash flow (FY25 est.)~$200M (~17% of EV)

EBITDA rebuild: pro forma operating income $104.9M + D&A $199.7M + goodwill impairment $17.6M + stock comp ~$41M + M&A/integration add-backs ~$15M ≈ $378M. Stock-comp split between sold and retained businesses is estimated; the company-defined figure could land $375–385M (2.9x–3.1x). Whole-company 2025 FCF was $288M actual (op cash flow $407M less capex $119M).

Strip out the cash and you are paying ~$31/share for businesses earning ~$380M of adjusted EBITDA. The market just watched one ZD segment transact at ~11x and is pricing the four remaining segments at ~3x. Evercore's $61 target implies re-rating that stub only to ~7–8x, still below the private-market print.

04Backing Into the Valuation, Part 2: The Segment SOTP

ZD discloses segment revenue but not segment EBITDA, so the EBITDA column is estimated. Multiples are private-market marks, not where public no-growth media trades.

Segment (FY2025)RevenueYoYEst. EBITDAMultipleImplied EV
Health & Wellness (pharma/HCP media)$402M+11%~$140M9–12x$1.3–1.7B
Cybersecurity & Martech (software-ish)$278M−2%~$86M8–11x$0.7–0.9B
Technology & Shopping (commodity media)$357M−1%~$107M6–7x$0.6–0.75B
Gaming & Entertainment (IGN, Humble)$184M+2%~$50M8–11x$0.4–0.6B
Sum: remaining-co EV$1.22B~$385M~$3.0–3.9B
vs. market-implied remaining-co EV~$1.2B

Add back the ~$765M of net cash and the SOTP equity value is roughly $3.6–4.5B, or $95–120 per share, against $51.60. The single sharpest line in the whole argument: Health & Wellness alone, growing 11%, in the premium pharma/physician-media vertical (Doximity-adjacent, and Doximity trades north of 20x), is worth ~$1.4B at 10x. That one segment covers the market's implied value for the entire remaining company; at today's price you get Tech & Shopping, Cyber & Martech, IGN, and the cash pile for free.

Why it isn't a layup

05The Segments as They Stand (Q1'26)

SegmentFY24→25Q1'26 YoYRead
Technology & Shopping−1.5%−12.9%Melting: AI search is eating buying-guide traffic, and the decline accelerated
Cybersecurity & Martech−1.9%+3.6%Turned: was declining, now stabilized
Health & Wellness+11.0%+0.2%Stalled: the biggest segment and the swing factor
Gaming & Entertainment+1.8%+7.2%Growing: record Humble Bundle quarter
Total (continuing ops)+2.7%−1.9%Ex-Tech & Shopping, the company grew ~3%

This table is the bull/bear dividing line. Bears extrapolate the −13% corner across the whole company and call 3x fair. Bulls point out that ~73% of the remaining revenue base was flat to growing, and that management has committed to total continuing-ops growth returning in 2H26 with each successive Tech & Shopping quarter improving year over year. Those commitments get their first test August 6.

06AI: The Bear Case and the Free Option, Same Asset

The irony at the center of ZD: the content AI search is starving is the same content ZD is suing OpenAI over, and the same content peers are now licensing for real money.

The damage (real and measurable)

The option (also real, and priced by comps)

The honest bear read on licensing

Licensing revenue may replace traffic revenue rather than add to it, and the Q1 call contained management's most honest line on this: certain affiliate-commerce traffic "is harder for us to replace." ZD is also visibly absent from the new paid distribution surfaces (Wiley's 41-partner network, the Netflix lifestyle-content deal with Condé Nast, Hearst, and People). Absence can mean discipline and a lawsuit strategy. It can also just mean absence.

07Capital Allocation: The Actual Engine

The five-week silence

Since the June 17 close, there has been no capital-allocation announcement: no tender, no special dividend, no accelerated repurchase. That $1.2B has now been idle for over five weeks. The Q2 print (buyback dollars with the deal blackout over) is the first hard evidence of how management reads its own stock. A big number confirms the thesis; a small one with a mediocre acquisition attached weakens it.

08In Their Own Words

Pulled from the last eight-plus quarters of earnings calls (FMP transcripts) and recent investor events. Machine transcription; wording spot-checked but treat as near-verbatim.

On the valuation gap
"In 2021 the company generated $485 million of adjusted EBITDA and the stock hit a high of almost $130. This year the midpoint of our guidance has us generating $523 million of adjusted EBITDA and the stock is currently in the 30s with almost 12% fewer shares outstanding. While the market processes this we will continue to lean into this dislocation."
Vivek Shah, CEO · Q1 2025 call, May 9, 2025
"The disconnect between the current value of the company and... the true value of the company in our own minds, is probably at the widest it's ever been... we believe every one of our divisions should command a multiple, each of them individually, higher than what is the current Ziff Davis multiple."
Vivek Shah · Q3 2025 call, Nov 7, 2025
The enterprise "is trading roughly three to four times EBITDA."
Vivek Shah · Global TIMT investor conference fireside, Nov 19, 2025 (twelve days later, the same complaint at a conference; four months later they sold a segment at ~11x)
"Our current stock price implies that we're only getting credit [for] the expected cash proceeds of the Connectivity sale while little additional value is being ascribed to the rest of our assets... The market appears to be penalizing the better-performing businesses in our portfolio for sharing an ownership structure with those that are under pressure."
Vivek Shah · Q1 2026 call, May 8, 2026
On selling the parts
"There are some real market comps for each one of our segments... as you look at a potential value of each segment... I think we'd find that it would be well in excess of the current market value of the company."
Vivek Shah · Q4 2024 call, Feb 25, 2025 (announcing the two-to-five segment reporting re-cut, the move that made SOTP analysis possible)
"I'd also say to our sell-side and buy-side analysts, I think if you could go through some of the parts valuation exercise, I think that would be revealing."
Vivek Shah · Q2 2025 call, Aug 7, 2025
"We have also received interest from both strategic and private equity investors in certain of our businesses... You'll recall that in 2021, we undertook a similar process that resulted in the spinoff of our Consensus business... Consensus' post spinoff enterprise value was close to $2 billion."
Vivek Shah · Q3 2025 call, Nov 7, 2025 (announcing the strategic review that produced the Connectivity sale)
A "transformative" transaction and "a significant realization of value for shareholders."
Vivek Shah · special investor call on the Accenture sale, Mar 3, 2026
"We see this as a pivot from our buy-and-hold past to a future in which active monetization represents a key tool in our pursuit of shareholder value creation."
Vivek Shah · Q1 2026 call, May 8, 2026
"We do view asset monetization as a new ongoing tool in our kit... as long as the public market value of our EBITDA remains low, and it does, we're going to continue to pursue asset monetization."
Vivek Shah · Q1 2026 call, May 8, 2026
"Our shareholders have been patient. We feel an overwhelming obligation to really reward that patience."
Vivek Shah · Q3 2025 call, Nov 7, 2025
On buybacks
"It continues to stand out as, frankly, the best option for our capital. I mean we could buy this, what we believe is an amazing company, at almost unbelievable multiples."
Vivek Shah · Q3 2025 call, Nov 7, 2025 (buybacks took ~85% of year-to-date free cash flow at that point)
"Since the end of 2022... we have grown free cash flow by 25%, reduced our gross debt levels by nearly 14% and lowered our year-end shares outstanding by more than 18%."
Bret Richter, CFO · Q4 2025 call, Feb 24, 2026 (same call: the board added 10M shares to the authorization)
"I'll quote Ben Graham. The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists."
Vivek Shah · Q1 2026 call, May 8, 2026 (on selling Connectivity at a premium while buying Popular Science, Dwell and Domino at an accretive multiple)
Connectivity proceeds will go to "general corporate purposes" and to "fund robust capital allocation activities."
Management · J.P. Morgan Global TMC Conference fireside, May 18, 2026 (the last public word on the $1.2B before the Aug 6 print)
On AI licensing
"I put this into the category of possibly the second mouse gets the cheese. And so I'd rather be patient and understand the market a little bit more before we make commitments that become the framework by which we work with all of the [LLMs]."
Vivek Shah · Q1 2024 call, May 9, 2024 (the patience doctrine, two years running)
"Popular curated data sets used in major large language models significantly favor premium publisher content, prioritizing it between five and nearly 100 times more than general web content collected through Common Crawl."
Vivek Shah · Q3 2024 call, Nov 8, 2024 (citing ZD's own research paper, the analytical groundwork for the lawsuit)
"Our position is consistent. Both use cases require proper licensing. We will not enter into RAG-focused agreements that compromise our rights to fair compensation for foundational training."
Vivek Shah · Q4 2025 call, Feb 24, 2026
"We anticipate greater clarity on these fundamental licensing questions following the resolution of our ongoing litigation. Once established, we believe this clarity will unlock licensing opportunities and allow us to move forward with agreements that appropriately reflect the full value of our content."
Vivek Shah · Q4 2025 call, Feb 24, 2026 (why there is still no deal: the lawsuit IS the negotiation)
On the lawsuit
"We did attempt in good faith to address and resolve OpenAI's unauthorized use of our content both in its training activities and in its RAG activities. We didn't get to acceptable terms... Look, frankly, if someone's going to steal, we're not just going to sit by and do nothing."
Vivek Shah · Q1 2025 call, May 9, 2025 (announcing the suit)
"As of the first of July, we commenced blocking of known AI bots at the CDN level with partners like Cloudflare... up until that point, we were using robots.txt, and the problem with robots.txt, as we've come to see, is that it's a directive that bots can and have chosen to ignore."
Vivek Shah · Q2 2025 call, Aug 7, 2025
On the search problem (the honest ones)
"We did in 2025, roughly $90 million in affiliate commerce commissions related to organic traffic. That was down about $25 million year-over-year, and half of that $25 million was in Q4."
Vivek Shah · Q4 2025 call, Feb 24, 2026 (dimensioning the damage for the first time)
"The one type of traffic that really is hard to replace [is] high-intent consumers who arrive via search looking for a product or a service and then clicking through to make a purchase."
Vivek Shah · Q1 2026 call, May 8, 2026 (the crux of the bear case, in the CEO's own words)

Worth tracking as a series: management's own disclosed figure for how often Google AI Overviews appear on ZD's most important queries went from 8% (Q2'24) to 12% (Q4'24) to over 20% (Q1'25) to 29% (Q3'25), while the framing moved from "we don't see it as a significant change to the search experience" to acknowledging "rank volatility" to the Q1'26 concession quoted above. No updated figure has been disclosed since; that gap is itself an Aug 6 watch item.

Where AI helps them
"At the start of AI, we were viewing it more as sort of 'copilot.' It is now the pilot... where we would talk 4 quarters out or 5 quarters out, we're now talking weeks out to push product."
Vivek Shah · Q1 2026 call, May 8, 2026 (internal AI as a structural margin lever: "lower cost per feature delivered" without "proportionately scaling engineering headcount")
They are "not writing content using AI," calling it "a very dangerous proposition."
Vivek Shah · Global TIMT investor conference fireside, Nov 19, 2025 (AI for shipping product, not for making content: the brand-trust line they will not cross)

Earnings-call quotes are from FMP machine transcriptions; conference quotes are from event recaps. Bracketed words are cleanups of obvious transcription artifacts. Full transcripts on file for anyone who wants the context around any quote.

09Positioning: Who Is on the Other Side

Short interest (Nasdaq bi-monthly settlements)

SettlementShares short% of floatDays to cover
Jul 15, 20254.06M12.2%7.1
Dec 31, 20254.74M14.3%9.7
Feb 27, 20265.77M17.4%5.3
Apr 15, 20264.07M12.3%7.0
May 29, 20265.32M16.0%9.4
Jun 15, 2026 (peak)5.85M17.6%11.1
Jun 30, 20265.75M17.3%6.3
Jul 15, 2026 (latest)4.41M~13%7.8

% of float computed on the ~33.2M-share Nasdaq float for consistency; vendors using other float bases show 12.4% (MarketBeat) to higher. Roughly 1 to 1.5 points of the spring rise was the shrinking-float denominator (buybacks); the rest was genuine short adds.

The shape of this series tells the story. Shorts added ~44% from mid-April to mid-June, pressing into the deal close and 52-week highs, peaked at a series high two days before the Accenture close, and then covered 23% in the first half of July as the stock ran to $54.95. Read honestly: part of the July rally was that covering, and the easiest squeeze fuel has partially burned. What remains (~4.4M shares, ~13% of float, ~7.8 days to cover, still up ~38% year over year) keeps the setup two-sided into Aug 6: a clean print meets a shrinking float and a still-elevated short base; a bad print and the shorts who stayed get paid.

The street

FirmRatingTargetDate
Evercore ISI (Coolbrith)Outperform$61 (street high)May 12
SusquehannaPositive$60May 5
J.P. Morgan (Carpenter)Neutral$50Mar 6
RBC (Jaluria)Outperform$48maintained Jul 15
Barclays (Sandler)Equal Weight$48May 11
Piper Sandler$48May 11
UBSbear outlier$30spring 2026

Consensus sits between Hold / avg $47.25 (MarketBeat, 9 firms, 7/17) and Buy / avg $49.40 (stockanalysis.com, 5 analysts, 7/24). Either way, at $51.60 the stock trades above the consensus target. That is usually read one of two ways: the targets are stale after the close and PT catch-ups are coming into the print, or the market has already paid for the re-rating. Goldman initiated at Buy in June; Weiss upgraded from Sell to Hold June 1.

The crowd, and the insiders

10What to Watch: The August 6 Scorecard

Q2'26 release Thursday Aug 6, 6:00pm ET; call Friday Aug 7, 8:30am ET (Shah and CFO Richter). Graded against management's own Q1 commitments.

CheckBarWhy it matters
Tech & Shopping YoYBetter than −13%The 2H26 growth bridge dies on the first step if not
Total revenue YoYBetter than −2%Sets up the promised 2H return to growth, Q4 > Q3
Q2 buyback dollars> $51.6MDeal blackout is over and the cash is in hand; no excuse left
FY26 guidanceReinstated or notContinued silence signals more portfolio moves coming
Cash deploymentAny announcement$1.2B idle since June 17
AI licensing dealFirst one everWiley and RELX have proven both the annuity and the settlement comp

Other dated markers

The bull case in one sentence

You are paying ~3x EBITDA for a cash-rich stub whose managers just proved they can sell pieces at ~11x, with a 17%-of-float short into a dated catalyst and a free option on AI licensing.

The bear case in one sentence

They sold the only great asset, the biggest remaining segment just stalled, the melting segment is melting faster, and a stock that has ~2.3x'd off its low on financial engineering is priced above what the sell side thinks it is worth.